THOUGHTS | THE TOP PICK REWARD?

Geo Chiu is reportedly close to signing with the Terrafirma Dyip, and while that’s technically just him honoring the team that drafted him, it still feels like a lose-lose situation.

First, let’s be real: Terrafirma has never been on the same level as the league’s top teams. Sure, the next two conferences are import-reinforced, and the Dyip might land a good one—but their track record with imports hasn’t exactly been inspiring. When was the last time they brought in someone close to the level of Peter John Ramos? No matter how many teams join the next two conferences—whether Hong Kong Eastern returns or Macau Black Bears enter—Chiu is probably looking at only 20–25 meaningful games at best.

Then there’s the Rookie of the Year race.

Because of the way the PBA schedule overlaps with the NCAA and MPBL, players who come in mid-season usually fall behind those who’ve been active since Day 1. Last season, RJ Abarrientos was up against Sedrick Barefield. Even though RJ deserved it based on games played and team success, people tend to forget that Justine Baltazar actually played the same number of games as Barefield. There’s this automatic bias that mid-season arrivals are “lacking,” which feels unfair—but it’s the reality.

The last guy who really broke that mold was Calvin Abueva back in 2012–13, when he managed to steal shine from June Mar Fajardo despite finishing his San Sebastian stint before suiting up for Alaska.

Chiu’s teammate, Dave Ildefonso, might have a more realistic Rookie of the Year shot when he jumps to Converge after his Abra Weavers contract ends in 2027. But for Chiu, waiting doesn’t help. The longer the delay, the deeper the draft pool gets—Clint Escamis, Allen Liwag, Cedrick Manzano, Quentin Millora-Brown, Michael Phillips, and even returning Asian imports could all be in the mix by then.

Right now, Juan Gomez de Liaño looks like the leading rookie, with Dalph Panopio as the dark horse. And unless Chiu suddenly posts June Mar-level numbers and drags Terrafirma into title contention, the Rookie of the Year plum probably won’t be part of his story. At this point, signing with the Dyip just feels more like fulfilling an obligation than chasing awards.