Looking back, I think I did Joel Embiid dirty when I batched him with these NBA top-pick disappointments.
I think it was his rookie season when people saw him in a Greg Oden-like situation.
Joel Embiid still has injury scares now and then but he is far from a bust. In fact, while I don't agree with the narrative of racism in the MVP voting, I think Joel Embiid can be an NBA MVP this season. Inasmuch as Nikola Jokic spewing triple-doubles in the regular season, I can't really see the guy winning again for leading Denver to mere playoff finishes. The most recent player to win three straight MVP awards, Larry Bird, had a championship record of two wins and one loss during the 1984 to 1986 span. Steve Nash, also had an MVP-like season after winning two straight MVP titles but voter fatigue probably helped Dirk Nowitzki win the title in 2007.
More than racism, the NBA is probably going to choose their winners on narrative. It's a similar case in basically all of the leagues on earth, in my opinion. In 1999, I thought Danny Seigle could have become the second player to win the MVP and Rookie of the Year award in the PBA had it not for the Fil-Sham controversies (it's ironic that the first Rookie MVP, Benjie Paras, became the eventual winner). Jokic and Nash have pretty much the same playoff success in the sense that both incarnations of the teams ended up without a championship. With that said, The Joker's situation is graver since Nash's Phoenix Suns were able to reach the Western Conference Finals twice during his reign. During the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Denver was swept by Phoenix in the Western Conference Semifinals, and in the 2022 edition, Denver was eliminated in the first round via a gentleman's sweep against eventual champions, the Golden State Warriors.
I am not saying Embiid has the chance to win the NBA title this season nor I am saying that Jokic will lose another championship crack this season. Given past situations, Embiid can win the MVP trophy and then get booted out of the playoffs with Denver probably winning the plum despite Jokic losing the title. Either way, it's better for Jokic to lose the distinction rather than gain the pressure it would unearth.