THOUGHTS | MACAU'S FOUR-POINT PLAN

The Macau Black Knights’ Commissioner’s Cup campaign has been disappointing, judging by their first two games in the league. While most PBA teams only resort to the four-point line in desperation situations or late-clock heaves, Macau seems intent on making it a central part of their offense.

Ugh.

And that, my friends, is exactly how the Black Knights could lose this conference in rather unceremonious fashion.

Of course, this isn’t the only issue derailing Macau’s campaign. The team lacks depth, Tony Mitchell’s rebounding average is barely higher than Joseph Eriobu’s 6.5 boards per game, and their overall field goal percentage leaves much to be desired.

Still, it’s hard to ignore the irony. This is a team that has traveled across the continent competing against top commercial squads, yet their primary rallying point in the PBA appears to be chucking as many quadruples as possible. Macau is entering the PBA in a very different landscape compared to past international guest teams like the Bay Area Dragons or Hong Kong Eastern. Yes, they have a couple of holdovers from those squads, but what we are seeing right now isn't as scary as compared to the days of the Bay Area Dragons.

When you combine the team’s current standing with their questionable game plan, it raises the possibility that the PBA might eventually look for a better alternative as its guest team.

The thing about the four-point line is that the novelty may have already run its course. I’m not saying it was a joke from the start, but as the conferences wear on, it increasingly feels that way. At first, I thought the rule might catch on, given how modern basketball continues to stretch the floor. Instead, PBA teams rarely use it, and the rest of the basketball world hasn’t exactly embraced the concept either.

You could argue that Steph Curry–type long-distance shots are now as common as a dunk to a layup. At the end of the day, a dunk or a layup is still just two points. Likewise, no matter how deep the shot is taken, a three-pointer is only worth three points.

Also, maybe it’s just me, but ever since the four-point line was introduced, it feels like Gilas Pilipinas has been stuck in a bit of a bind. There may not be a direct connection, but while the rest of Asia seems to be improving, we appear to be trying to evolve our game around this gimmick.

And let’s not forget: the FIBA three-point line is already closer to the basket.

Again, the Steph Curry range shot is basically a layup with theatrics.

Basing an entire strategy around the four-point shot is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward approach. Unfortunately for the Black Knights, every team in the PBA—even those at the bottom of the standings—knows that committing to this strategy is practically conceding defeat before the game even begins.

MACAU'S FOUR-POINT CONVERSIONS

	VS CONV		VS ROS		TOTALS
PLAYER	FG	FGA	FG	FGA	FG	FGA	PER
JENNING LEUNG	2	5	2	6	4	11	36.36%
RAMON CAO	0	1	2	2	2	3	66.67%
DAMIAN CHONGQUI	1	8	0	7	1	15	6.67%
TONY MITCHELL - IMP	1	2	0	0	1	2	50.00%
LAO, CHON PONG	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.00%
PHOENIX SHACKELFORD	0	2	0	0	0	2	0.00%

Jenning Leung and Damian Chongqui have been the two biggest culprits in this approach. The problem is that it’s not like their three-point shooting has been any better. Yes, Leung has a slightly more tolerable percentage, but Chongqui has struggled badly, hitting just one four-pointer in 15 attempts.

Meanwhile, Phoenix Shackelford abandoned the four-point shot in their game against Rain or Shine and ended up playing much better. The same can be said for Chon Pong Lao, who is shooting 37 percent from beyond the three-point line.

I understand that long-distance bombing has become the norm in modern basketball, but this is still a hard sell—especially when fans expect these guest teams to come in and impose their will on the local squads rather than rely on low-percentage gimmicks.

MACAU'S THREE-POINT CONVERSIONS

	VS CONV		VS ROS		TOTALS
PLAYER	FG	FGA	FG	FGA	FG	FGA	PER
PHOENIX SHACKELFORD	2	6	3	4	5	10	50.00%
JENNING LEUNG	2	8	2	7	4	15	26.67%
LAO, CHON PONG	2	5	2	6	4	11	36.36%
DAMIAN CHONGQUI	0	0	1	3	1	3	33.33%
TONY MITCHELL - IMP	0	1	0	1	0	2	0.00%
CHAO, XINGZHAO	0	1	0	1	0	2	0.00%
SUN, MENG	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.00%
LU, ZIJIE	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.00%
RAMON CAO	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0.00%

It also creates problems on the boards. Shots taken from that distance tend to produce unpredictable rebounds, making them much harder to track. Macau does have an exciting and versatile import in Tony Mitchell, but it’s difficult for him to chase those long rebounds while also battling the opposing import inside. In the first two games, Mitchell and Magnolia’s Nuni Omot have recorded some of the lowest rebounding numbers among imports.

This is particularly amusing in Magnolia’s case. The Hotshots were one of the teams that initially embraced the four-point line, especially when they had Jerrick Ahanmisi and a prime Paul Lee during the early run of the rule.

Coincidentally—or maybe not—both teams are off to 0–2 starts.

Even Barangay Ginebra’s Justin Brownlee—arguably the smallest import in the conference—can hit those deep shots. But he rarely forces them unless he’s completely wide open. Launching four-point attempts without any real control over where the rebound might land becomes a nightmare, especially for a smaller import like Mitchell.

That’s why many teams prefer seven-foot imports: big bodies who dominate the paint, battle for rebounds, and occasionally stretch the floor. Think players in the mold of Chet Holmgren—guys who can mix inside play with respectable outside shooting.

Macau openly announced that they were hunting for four-point shots, so PBA teams simply responded by throwing their best perimeter defenders at them.

Yes, Phoenix blew the game open against Titan Ultra thanks to Evan Nelle hitting three four-point shots in the fourth quarter. But those were the result of shot-making brilliance rather than a carefully designed play. If you watched the game, Michael Gilmore received little help from the locals, which is why he was already gasping for air after trimming the deficit to nine.

Phoenix was also playing without Jason Perkins and Tyler Tio, and they even lost Kai Ballungay to injury early in the game. Yet after entering the fourth quarter with only a nine-point lead, the Fuel Masters ended up winning by 33. Titan Ultra has now lost two games by an average margin of 31.5 points.

If I were Macau—and normally I tend to root against non-PH teams in the tournament—I’d scrap this approach and focus on attacking the paint instead of falling in love with the league’s newest toy. Maybe if they adjusted their strategy, Mitchell could become more effective. Even if Sam Deguara were still with the team, he’d struggle chasing rebounds from shots that either ricochet far beyond his reach or airball out of bounds.

There’s a reason the PBA eventually shelved the Asian import rule: those players simply couldn’t consistently provide what the fans expected.

And the same principle applies to guest teams. Just like the four-point line, the PBA can always decide to move on from the concept if it stops serving its purpose.

Macau had better start winning soon. Otherwise, the idea floating in my head right now is this: why not invite a commercial club from Iran to play in the PBA? Considering everything happening in their country, they probably deserve the opportunity far more than whatever this current experiment is turning into.